The US dollar falls, metals show mixed performance, polysilicon rises for two consecutive days in five trading days, alumina and silicon metal rise more than 2% [SMM Daily Review]

Metals Market:Z3/>As of the day session close, domestic market base metals mostly declined, with only SHFE copper and SHFE aluminum rising 0.14% and 0.12% respectively. SHFE nickel led losses with a 0.67% decline, while SHFE zinc fell 0.61% and other metals showed relatively small fluctuations. Alumina main contract surged 2.78% for two consecutive gains, and aluminum casting main contract rose 0.46%.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract gained 0.69%, polysilicon main contract hit the daily upper limit with a 7% surge and achieved two limit-up sessions in five days, while silicon metal main contract rose 2.82%. Europe-line container shipping main contract reported 2006.2 points with a 7.16% gain.

Ferrous metals series showed mixed performance: stainless steel rose 0.32% and iron ore gained 0.14%. Rebar and HRC both declined, while coking coal and coke saw 0.84% and 0.14% gains respectively.

Overseas market: As of 15:04, overseas market base metals mostly rose, with LME nickel being the sole decliner (-0.28%). LME aluminum (+0.54%), LME lead (+0.56%) and LME tin (+0.57%) all gained over 0.5%. Other metals showed limited fluctuations.

Precious metals: As of 15:04, COMEX gold rose 0.04% and COMEX silver gained 0.29%. Domestically, SHFE gold increased 0.43% and SHFE silver rose 0.22%.

Market snapshot as of 15:04 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Updates:

[Announcement: State Council Information Office to hold press conference on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan"] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference series on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan". The inaugural event will take place at 10:00 on July 9, 2025 (Wednesday), with NDRC Director Zheng Shanjie presenting economic and social development achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and answering questions.

[Hong Kong SFC: Expanding Southbound Bond Connect participants to include brokers, insurers, wealth managers and asset managers] Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission CEO Julia Leung delivered a speech titled "Three-Pronged Strategy to Develop Hong Kong as Offshore RMB Center" at the 2025 Bond Connect Anniversary Forum today. Leung announced that the People's Bank of China and Hong Kong Monetary Authority have implemented several optimization measures for Bond Connect, including expanding Southbound Bond Connect participants to cover brokers, insurers, wealth managers and asset managers, and optimizing offshore RMB bond repo operations to allow bond repledging during repo transactions.

►On July 8, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1534 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:04, the US dollar index fell by 0.26% to 97.3. Xinhua News Agency reported that US President Trump stated on the 7th that he would impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, starting from August 1. Caroline Levitt, the White House press secretary, confirmed at an afternoon press conference on the 7th that US President Trump planned to sign an executive order to extend the 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs," postponing the implementation from July 9 to August 1. The market expects that the minutes of the US Fed's June meeting, to be released on Wednesday, should provide more clues about the Fed's policy outlook. A joint paper released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco stated that despite the current relatively high short-term borrowing costs, there is still a possibility that the US Fed will cut interest rates again to near-zero levels at some point in the coming years. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro:

Today, data such as the 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for June, the 1-year gold price increase expectation of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for June, Japan's May trade balance - seasonally adjusted by the central bank based on customs data, Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending July 6, Australia's cash rate on July 8, Germany's seasonally adjusted monthly export growth rate for May, France's May trade balance, and Canada's June IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI will be released. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Michele Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Crude oil:

As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US oil down by 0.63% and Brent oil down by 0.5%. Investors are assessing the impact of US tariffs and OPEC+'s unexpected production increase in August. US tariffs have introduced uncertainty across the market, with concerns that they may negatively affect the global economy and, consequently, oil demand. However, there are signs that current demand remains strong, particularly in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, which is supporting oil prices.

AAA data from last week showed that a record 72.2 million Americans are expected to travel more than 50 miles (80 kilometers) during the Independence Day holiday.

Data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of the week ending July 1, fund managers' net long positions in crude oil futures and options increased, with investors bullish on crude oil ahead of the holiday. Senior Analyst Emril Jamil from an oil research firm stated, "Spot demand remains healthy due to seasonal factors. The question is whether forward demand can be sustained to absorb OPEC's higher-than-expected supply."

Further signs of demand growth emerged in India, the world's third-largest oil consumer, where government data showed June fuel consumption rose 1.9% compared to the same period last year.

OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to raise daily output by 548,000 barrels in August, exceeding the previous three months' increase of 411,000 barrels. However, analysts noted that actual production increases have so far fallen short of announced levels, with most supply coming from Saudi Arabia. (Comprehensive reporting by Wenhua)

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